Industry-watchers like to use a number of metrics to gauge the health of shipping. The Baltic Dry Index is one; the world idle fleet another. Here we take a look at another indicator: the orderbook – or, more precisely, shipyards, which are in the frontline of any improvements or declines in industry health. Shipyards are in a precarious position. A strong orderbook should be good for business; more ships mean more work. But too many orders can tip the fleet bal­ance into a glut and, as we have seen for the past seven years at least, that can lead to a prolonged curtailment of orders. It is a vicious cycle that gets repeated again and again.