The Daily View: Make progress with or without Trump
Your latest edition of Lloyd’s List’s Daily View — the essential briefing on the stories shaping shipping
ON PAPER, Donald Trump’s return to the White House looks like bad news for the “scam” climate negotiations he has so publicly derided.
The COP29 conference that opens today in Azerbaijan should have been focused on finding consensus around a new multi-trillion dollar climate finance mechanism. Instead, Trump’s return to power and the absence of those who might resist his wrecking ball instincts will likely dominate the discussions.
But there is a counter-narrative to the assumption that a second Trump term derails net zero efforts generally, and specifically for shipping.
For all the liberal gnashing of teeth, Trump’s impact on the IMO last time round was barely noticeable.
This is not 2016, but even under Biden the US was never going to be instrumental in getting the next phase of economic measures over the line.
If a vote were cast tomorrow, about 75% of states would easily back a shipping carbon levy without the US opposition worrying anyone.
Trump presents problems, but he is not a fundamental blocker at the IMO.
Global Energy policy of the scale required to unlock the hundreds of billions of dollars of investment for shipping’s net zero transition could be driven by progressive states, but it could still be driven by a rejuvenated multilateral process. If it takes a US retreat from global climate diplomacy to shock that multilateral system back into action then so be it.
Besides, more of the action on climate change has shifted into the economic marketplace now.
The climate targets for 2030 are within the gift of the wider industry to reach if only it could reconfigure the commercial contracts to share the cost.
Certainly the scale and complexity of global energy systems make government involvement indispensable for the widespread adoption of alternative energy sources, but the industry is able to make significant progress with or without Trump.
Shipping’s COP contingent should not lose faith — progress is still possible from Baku to MEPC83 and beyond.
Richard Meade
Editor-in-chief, Lloyd’s List